![]() COVID-19 will likely reinforce these trends. New digital technologies are enabling the automation of some historically labor-intensive agricultural tasks and providing an alternative to domestic labor substitution through international migration. There, the domestic workforce has shifted out of the AFS. In contrast, employment in the AFS has dropped to only 10 percent of the labor force in high income countries, where the majority of AFS jobs are now off-farm in food processing and services. Much hope is vested in the AFS to create badly needed jobs for youth in Africa, as well as for vulnerable populations and people in lagging regions elsewhere in the world ( FAO, 2017, IFAD, 2019, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2020). The AFS remains a major employer, particularly in poorer countries and for the poorer segments of society ( Abdelaziz et al., 2020). Increasingly, so are its related up- and down-stream activities in input supply, food logistics, food processing, retail, and food services, which, together with agriculture, make up the broader agri-food system (AFS). So, what role can the agri-food system play as a source of employment in the future? This viewpoint elaborates on these trends and reviews several policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes, and ramp up in agricultural education and extension.īecause of the employment opportunities and economic multipliers it creates, especially during the early stages of development, agriculture has long been at the center of discussions about poverty reduction and economic development ( World Bank, 2007, Townsend et al., 2017). In the world’s poorest countries, particularly in Africa, labor productivity in agriculture remains at historically low levels. COVID-19 will reinforce trends of digitization and anti-globalization (including in food trade), while slowing economic growth and structural transformation. Robots in the fields and packing plants offer an alternative to a diminishing labor supply. Yet anti-immigration sentiments are flying high in migrant-destination countries, and agricultural trade may be similarly challenged. ![]() In this process of structural transformation, societies evolve from having a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor, typically met by foreign agricultural wage workers. Today, a digital revolution is taking hold. Historically, technological revolutions have shaped, and have been shaped by, these dynamics. But the broader agri-food system also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. As countries develop, agriculture’s role as domestic employer declines.
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